Working with arbs, you can entrust their search to surebet scanners or look for them on your own. The topic of independent search is going to be highlighted in this article.
Manual arb search
We’d like to warn you right away that searching for arbs manually will make you analyze dozens of bookmaker lines which is a time consuming process. Moreover, when you do a manual search, you need to apply several formulas to calculate:
- inversion of bookmakers participating in an arb
- bet on each outcome
- safe profit
Inversion implies a definition of profit, which a bookmaker aims to get from the bets the arbers made on the chosen outcomes.
The arber has to assemble opposing outcomes of different bookies in the way inversion make less than 1. That’s when we can claim the presence of a surebet.
Example of arbs searching
B1: ТU (2.5) = @1.78, ТO (2.5) = @2.11
B2: ТU (2.5) = @2.05 ТO (2.5) = @1.82
Here you can see the prices from two sportsbooks for total goals in the match PSG v Monaco. According to the above stated instruction we can calculate the inversion for each bookie (I=1/K1+1/K2).
K1 – the price for one outcome, K2 – the price for another outcome:
I1 (for B1) = 1/1.78+1/2.11 = (0.5618 + 0.4739) = 1.036
I2 (for B2) = 1/2.05+1/1.82 = (0.4878 + 0.5494) = 1.037
As you see, final results are over 1 (sportsbooks intend to get 3.6 and 3.7% of profit respectively). And we have to combine the opposing outcomes of different bookies in the way the inversion amounts to <1.
Scenario 1. ТU 2.5 with B1 (@1.78) and ТO 2.5 with B2 (@1.82):
1/1.78 + 1/1.82 = (0.5618 + 0.5494) = 1.111. This case scenario is a bad fit.
Scenario 2. TO 2.5 with B1 @(2.11) and ТU 2.5 with B2 (@2.05):
1/2.11 + 1/2.05 = (0.4739 + 0.4878) = 0.9617. This scenario is much better as inversion is <1.
What’s next?
Now we can calculate the bet for each outcome (P1 and P2) using the following formula: Р1=D/(I*K1), Р2=D/(I*K2), where D is your bankroll for two bets.
Let’s imagine our bankroll for both bets is $200:
P1 = 200/(0.9617*2.11) = $98.56* for TO 2.5 @2.11
P2 = 200/(0.9617*2.05) = $101.44* for TU 2.5 @2.05.
Safe profit (W) for each outcome W1= P1*K1 – (P1+P2), W2= P2*K2 – (P1+P2):
W1 = 98.56 * 2.11 – (98.56 + 101.44) = $7.96
W2 = 101.44 * 2.05 – (98.56 + 101.44) = $7.95.
That’s how we get about $8 despite the result of the game. Not bad we must say.
To sum up
Today we answered the question How to find arbs? This process has it’s pros but the disadvantage is that is time consuming.
That’s why most arbers use surebet scanners like BetBurger. Such services analyze bookmaker lines and supply you with the list of surebets immediately. You don’t even have to calculate the bet, as services like BetBurger have a built-in calculator to manage your bets really easily.
We’d also like to recommend you to read the articles from “All About Surebets” section, where you can find a lot of interesting information on surebetting.
